Africa
Africa Carriers Outpace Global Peers in Air Traffic Growth
African carriers’ traffic grew 38.7 percent in 2023, compared with the year before, ahead of Latin and North American and European airlines according to The East African. According to the data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA), the year was marked by a strong industry-wide recovery, with a rebound in domestic and international travel. “The full year 2023 capacity was up 38.3 percent and load factor climbed 0.2 percentage points to 71.9 percent, the lowest among regions,” said IATA. Traffic from Asia-Pacific airlines maintained the most robust year-over-year rate among the regions.

“Despite political and economic challenges, 2023 saw air cargo markets regain ground lost in 2022 after the extraordinary COVID-19 peak in 2021. Although full-year demand was shy of pre-COVID-19 levels by 3.6 percent, the significant strengthening in the past quarter is a sign that markets are stabilising towards more normal demand patterns,” said Mr Willie Walsh, IATA Director General. That puts the industry on a very solid ground for success in 2024. But, with continued – and in some cases intensifying – instability in geopolitics and economic forces, little should be taken for granted in the months ahead.

Source: The New Times

Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa’s GDP to Double by 2040 to USD 4.5 Trillion
Market research company Euromonitor International has forecasted that the GDP of Sub-Saharan Africa will double by 2040 from the 2022 figure of USD 2 trillion to over USD 4.5 trillion. Euromonitor’s report, Sub-Saharan Africa: A Rising Economic Frontier, looked at the economies of Uganda and 45 other African countries as part of its research into the continent’s current and future economic conditions. Rising consumption, commodity exports and foreign direct investment are expected to drive Africa’s economic growth, backed by a surge in the economies of East Africa.

The region is predicted to become a USD 1 trillion economy by 2037. It is anticipated to overtake Southern Africa as the second-largest regional economy by 2039. By 2040, East Africa is expected to account for 28 percent of Sub-Saharan Africa’s GDP, up from 21 percent in 2022. The region’s key heavyweight economies of Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania will drive this economic growth, with the average GDP across all four expected to surge by 200 percent over the forecast period.

Source: The Independent

East Africa
Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda Set for Power Plant Handover
The three East African countries will inaugurate the transboundary Rusumo Hydropower Project in April 2024. The 80-megawatt (MW) project, nearing completion at 99.9 percent, represents a joint investment of nearly USD 468 million by the three partner nations. Implemented by the Nile Equatorial Lakes Subsidiary Action Program (NELSAP-CU) on behalf of the Rusumo Power Company Limited (RPCL), a special-purpose vehicle formed by the three countries, the project promises to boost regional energy security and stability significantly.

“After completing all required tests, NELSAP has signed the certificates of completion and handed over two of the three turbines to Rusumo Power Company Limited (RPCL),” said NELSAP-CU Regional Coordinator Dr Isaac Alukwe. The programme manager of the project, Mr Alloyce Oduor, said: “All three turbines have been tested, and all of them can individually operate at 105 per cent.” In a statement, NELSAP revealed that between November 2023 and January 2024, the 80 MW regional Rusumo Hydroelectric project delivered 66 million kWh of electricity to three countries (Rwanda, Burundi and Tanzania). Tanzania received 21 million kWh, the same as Rwanda, while Burundi received the highest allocation of 22 million kWh.

Source: The Citizen

Ethiopia
Ethiopia’s Affordable Electricity Attracting Cryptocurrency Mining Companies
Crypto mining companies are increasingly turning towards Africa, and Ethiopia in particular, for their mining operations, most of which are Chinese companies, according to a new report by Bloomberg. Ethiopia, like China, officially bans cryptocurrency trading, but the country legalised Bitcoin mining in 2022. Now, Chinese companies which have spent the years since China’s 2021 cryptocurrency ban searching for a new investment hub are increasingly investing in operations inside the African nation.

According to Bloomberg, 19 of the 21 companies dealing with Ethiopia’s power monopoly are Chinese. Miners are attracted by Ethiopia’s cheap electricity, of which 92 percent is provided by hydropower, even though nearly half of all Ethiopians live without electricity. Ethiopia’s temperate climate is also favourable to mining operations. In contrast, Texas, the United States’ biggest hub for mining, often faces higher temperatures, making cooling the machines more costly.

Source: The Block

Egypt
Egypt, Norway Sign 1 GW Solar Power Station Agreement
Aluminium Company of Egypt – Egyptalum, affiliated with the holding company of metallurgical industries, recently signed an agreement with the Norwegian company Scatec to establish a 1 GW solar power station to generate electricity for the industrial complex in Nagaa Hammadi. According to the agreement, the station will be built in two phases, with a capacity of 500 MW for each phase. The first phase is expected to be completed within 18 months from the date of signing and the second phase within 24 months, according to a press statement. The solar station is planned to be located near the aluminium factory in Nagaa Hammadi.

Scatec, a comprehensive developer of energy and green fuel projects, will be responsible for project development, financing, equipment installation, and study procedures. Currently, Egyptalum operates at the maximum production capacity for its factories, according to the Minister of Public Business Sector, Mahmoud Esmat. It’s worth mentioning that Egyptalum has been producing molten aluminium at its factory in Nagaa Hammadi since 1975, with a production capacity of 320,000 tons per year. The production includes various forms of castings, rolled products, aluminium sections, and carbon anode blocks, as well as the production of various spare parts for the company and others.

Source: Egypt Today

Tanzania
Tanzania’s Horticulture Sector Eyes Slice of Projected USD 40.24 Billion Global Market
The global fresh produce market is anticipated to reach USD 40.24 billion by 2026, expanding at an annual rate of 10.2 percent. Tanzania is keen to secure a share of this lucrative market through its burgeoning horticulture sector. Current data from Global Market Estimates (GME) indicate that the global horticulture market is worth an average of USD 20.77 billion in 2021 and is rapidly expanding. Despite its vast agricultural potential, Tanzania, like many African nations, only captures a small fraction of the over USD 30 billion horticulture market.

Dr Jacqueline Mkindi, CEO of the Tanzania Agricultural and Horticulture Association (TAHA), believes that with the right strategies, Tanzania could earn up to USD 3 billion annually from the horticulture industry. “Massive achievements have been accrued so far, including increases in yields of fruits and vegetables by 200 – 300 percent, increase in export earnings from USD 64 million in 2004 to over USD 779 million in 2019,” Mkindi says. She also applauds the government’s efforts to revitalise the horticulture sector, citing policy reforms addressing over 50 issues.

Source: The Exchange

Senegal
Senegal to Lead Rail Infrastructure, Logistics Renaissance
Senegal is set for major economic changes in 2024, expecting a 10.6 percent boost in GDP. The country’s commitment to modernising its infrastructure ahead of its first oil and gas production is encapsulated in its national master plan, Plan Sénégal Émergent – or Plan for an Emerging Senegal. This vision involves large-scale infrastructure projects designed to boost regional connectivity and catalyse economic growth, from the rehabilitation of Saint-Louis Airport undertaken in 2023 to the inauguration of the Bus Rapid Transit System in January 2024 to the planned construction of a highway linking Thiès and Saint-Louis. At the core of this vision is a focus on railway development, demonstrated partly by the ongoing restoration of the entire railway network by Grands Trains du Sénégal. The expansion of domestic rail infrastructure aligns with broader goals of connecting Senegal’s various regions, such as the Kédougou and Saint-Louis areas, easing road traffic, and reinvigorating Thiès as a railway hub.

Source: Energy Capital & Power

Rwanda
Rwanda’s Record USD 1 Billion Mineral Revenue Inspires Social and Economic Growth
According to players in the mining sector, the record-high mineral export revenue of USD 1.1 billion is a commendable stepping stone to scaling up investment and growing to greater heights in the industry for continued economic growth. Rwanda Mines, Petroleum and Gas Board crossed the USD 1 billion mark in export revenue generated in 2023, representing a 43 percent increase from USD 772 million recorded in 2022.

Mineral export earnings for the fourth quarter of 2023 (October to December) reached USD 252.99 million, marking a 34.9 percent increase compared to the same quarter in 2022. It fetched USD 241 million in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, the growth was mainly spurred by gold, which generated more than USD 202.5 million from 3,158 kilograms, followed by cassiterite, which generated USD 19.7 million from 1,293,608 kilograms, Wolfram worth USD 7.6 million from 639,987 kilograms, and other Minerals worth USD 3.8 million from 3,775,389 kilograms.

Source: The New Times

Zambia
Zambia Set to Negotiate Bigger Stakes in New Mining Projects
Zambia is keen to negotiate larger holdings in new mining projects to raise its revenue and boost spending by investors on social projects, mines minister Paul Kabuswe said. The push by Lusaka through state-owned ZCCM-IH would apply to future agreements but does not include existing mines and should not unnerve investors, Kabuswe told Reuters. Zambia is Africa’s second-largest copper producer after the neighbouring Democratic Republic of Congo, and ZCCM has interests of 10 percent to 20 percent in mines, including those owned by Barrick Gold, Vedanta Resources and First Quantum Minerals.

ZCCM sold a 51 percent stake in Mopani Copper Mines to a unit of United Arab Emirates International Holding Company, retaining the remainder, which previously belonged to Glencore. “Stakes in new tenements will be moulded around such kind of partnerships,” Kabuswe said in an interview on Tuesday on the sidelines of the Africa Mining Indaba. “We want to make sure that there is win-win, that there is no slave-master relationship, and we also want to make sure that there’s social impact,” he added. While Zambia’s government has set a copper production target of about three million metric tons within a decade, output has been declining gradually due to challenges at some operations, including Mopani and Konkola Copper Mines.

Source: Mining Weekly

_______________________

Reports

Foresight Africa 2024| Brookings’ Africa Growth Initiative
Prioritising economic diversification, trade integration, and job creation are key directions to overcome economic headwinds on the African continent for the second year in a row. The Foresight Africa 2024 report urges African leaders to take action. It highlights the particular importance of development finance to tackle climate change. Despite being very similar to the 2023 edition, this year’s report does not state the need for strategic healthcare and food security interventions to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic’s long-term effects. Still, it does not confirm if these issues have already been addressed.

The 2024 priorities set by the authors of the report, who include multiple experts at the Brookings Institution, involve the high level of indebtedness of African economies lurking in the background. However, despite the negative impact of public debt, Africa is set to be the world’s second-fastest-growing region in 2024, as outlined during the report’s launch.

Click here to read and download the full report.

Africa’s Macroeconomic Performance and Outlook| African Development Bank
Africa’s economic growth remains resilient, supported by a strong rebound in infrastructure investment spending, a recovery in tourism arrivals after the COVID-19 pandemic, and the benefits of economic diversification. In 2023, economic growth in 15 countries exceeded 5 percent, and Africa remained the second fastest-growing region after Asia. Building resilience should remain a strategic priority for Africa in a world of rising uncertainty and geopolitical fragmentation. The African Development Bank Group’s latest projections indicate that growth will rise to 3.8 percent in 2024 and consolidate at 4.2 percent in 2025. This expansion will be broad-based, with a sustained growth momentum expected in 41 countries.

This report outlines actions to address economic challenges and accelerate Africa’s structural transformation. A credible monetary policy framework to rein in higher inflation, increase domestic resource mobilisation, and strategic global partnerships, peace and stability are the keys to achieving a prosperous Africa.

Click here to read and download the full report.

Action Plan to Accelerate Global Business and Investment in Africa | World Economic Forum
Africa is undergoing profound changes as the region becomes more integrated, accelerated by the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) – a single market representing 1.7 billion people and USD 6.7 trillion in consumer and business spending by 2030. The full implementation of the AfCFTA agreement is projected to increase real incomes by 7 percent or nearly USD 450 billion. 2023, recognised by the African Union as the “Year of the Acceleration of the African Continental Free Trade Area Implementation”, has been a turning point for operationalising this transformative trade deal. Momentum has been building around collaboration between the private sector and AfCFTA’s national organisations as they work.

Building off the Forum’s inaugural insight report, AfCFTA: A New Era for Global Business and Investment in Africa, launched in January 2023, this action plan announces initiatives and commitments from industry leaders in four priority sectors of the AfCFTA Secretariat: automotive, agriculture and agro-processing, pharmaceuticals, and transport and logistics, which have a combined worth of USD 130 billion. By bringing together Forum partners, the action plan delivers a bold and visionary blueprint for private sector involvement in Africa by announcing specific initiatives, projects and investments to which each company has committed.

Click here to read and download the full report.

Global Cybersecurity Outlook 2024| World Economic Forum
In 2023, the world faced a polarised geopolitical order, multiple armed conflicts, both scepticism and fervour about the implications of future technologies, and global economic uncertainty. Amid this complex landscape, the cybersecurity economy grew exponentially faster than the overall global economy and outpaced growth in the tech sector. However, many organisations and countries experienced that growth in exceptionally different ways.

A stark divide has emerged between cyber-resilient organisations and those that are struggling. This clear divergence in cyber equity is exacerbated by the contours of the threat landscape, macroeconomic trends, industry regulation and early adoption of paradigm-shifting technology by some organisations. These factors are also ever-present in the accelerated disappearance of a healthy “middle grouping” of organisations (that is those that maintain minimum standards of cyber resilience only). Despite this divide, many organisations indicate clear progress in certain aspects of their cyber capability. This year’s outlook also finds cause for optimism, especially considering the relationship between cyber and business executives.

Click here to read and download the full report.