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This article examines how the 2026 Gulf crisis has translated into concrete economic, fiscal and political pressures across some of Africa’s most consequential economies. Triggered by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz following the February 2026 escalation between the US, Israel and Iran, the crisis rapidly disrupted global energy, fertiliser and shipping markets.
Oil prices surged from around USD 70 per barrel to peaks above USD 120 per barrel, LNG and fertiliser exports from the Gulf were curtailed, and Red Sea–Suez shipping routes were effectively closed, forcing cargoes onto longer and more expensive Cape routes. While a ceasefire was reached in April, damage to core Gulf energy infrastructure and persistently elevated war risk insurance premiums mean disruption is ongoing rather than transitory.
8 May 26
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Rather than focusing on legal doctrines or contractual allocation of risk (addressed in Article 1 of the series), this paper adopts a country-by-country lens to show how the shock is experienced “on the ground” in economies that were, until recently, regarded as growth leaders. Kenya, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Tanzania and Zambia are not fragile or peripheral states; they are regional anchors. The article’s core argument is that if the Gulf shock strains these economies, those with weaker buffers will face even sharper adjustment.
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Should you have any questions regarding Africa at the Chokepoint series, do not hesitate to contact Gbenga Oyebode, Karim Anjarwalla, Atiq Anjarwalla, NanAma Botchway, Emmanuel Manda, Adil Shafi, Shemane Amin and Alex Layden.